397
Against a current recruitment target of 420.
FORECAST & CONVERSION
Forecast
Understand the expected recruitment outcome and the pipeline supporting it.
TB
−23
Expected starts required to close the current forecast gap.
MODEL FOUNDATION
v0.2 demoJourney conversion assumptions
Registered → next stage55%
Completed → next stage66%
Assessment Ready → next stage88%
Offers Made → next stage97%
RECRUITMENT TARGET & PACE ENGINE · V0.24
at riskTaleforth now knows where recruitment should be, not only where it is
Targets, expected position by date, actual pace and projected starts are now governed system objects. Pace variance can become reusable intelligence evidence.
TargetDefine
→DateExpected pace
→Recruitment dataActual
→VarianceCompare
→TrajectoryProject
→MI RulebookEvaluate
CYCLE TRAJECTORY
234 projected starts against a target of 500
Current accepted volume implies a projected variance of -266. Taleforth calculates how much additional acceptance is required to close the gap.
ScopeStageActualExpectedVarianceVariance %Status
Whole cycleapplications473808-335-41.5%at risk
Whole cycleoffers248508-260-51.2%at risk
Whole cycleaccepted241479-238-49.7%at risk
Technicalapplications95174-79-45.4%at risk
Technicaloffers50111-61-55%at risk
Technicalaccepted49105-56-53.3%at risk
Post Productionapplications95160-65-40.6%at risk
Post Productionoffers50102-52-51%at risk
Post Productionaccepted4896-48-50%at risk
Film Productionapplications95179-84-46.9%at risk
Film Productionoffers50113-63-55.8%at risk
Film Productionaccepted48106-58-54.7%at risk
Craftapplications94136-42-30.9%at risk
Craftoffers4983-34-41%at risk
Craftaccepted4877-29-37.7%at risk
Production Managementapplications94160-66-41.2%at risk
Production Managementoffers49100-51-51%at risk
Production Managementaccepted4895-47-49.5%at risk
PATHWAY PROJECTIONS
Which recruitment areas are on course to hit their final starts target?
Technicalat risk
48 projected / 110 target
-62 projected variance · 65 more accepted requiredPost Productionat risk
47 projected / 100 target
-53 projected variance · 56 more accepted requiredFilm Productionat risk
47 projected / 110 target
-63 projected variance · 66 more accepted requiredCraftat risk
47 projected / 80 target
-33 projected variance · 35 more accepted requiredProduction Managementat risk
47 projected / 100 target
-53 projected variance · 56 more accepted requiredPace status is operational intelligence, not an admissions judgement.Targets and projections describe recruitment performance and can be evaluated by governed MI rules without scoring individual applicants.
RECRUITMENT FORECASTING ENGINE · V0.25
-254 current gapTaleforth now models where recruitment could finish — and what recovery would require
Forecasts combine current journey conversion with governed target data to produce current, downside and recovery scenarios, confidence bands and weekly pace requirements.
Downside229
Recruitment conversion weakens from the current observed trajectory.
220–238 confidence band · -271 vs targetCurrent trajectory246
Recruitment continues at the current deterministic trajectory.
236–256 confidence band · -254 vs targetRecovery304
Focused intervention improves future application, offer and acceptance conversion.
292–316 confidence band · -196 vs targetREQUIRED WEEKLY RECOVERY PACE
What needs to happen from here to close the current target gap?
The pace requirement translates the remaining start gap into accepted applicants, offers and applications needed per week.
PathwayCurrentRecoveryDownsideTargetCurrent gapConfidence
Technical536747110-57medium
Post Production496046100-51medium
Film Production546746110-56medium
Craft47544680-33medium
Production Management496046100-51medium
FORECAST INTELLIGENCE
Where does the current trajectory require attention?
highWhole cycle
Whole cycle is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 246 starts against a target of 500.
-254 projected start variance · 236 to 256 confidence range · high forecast confidencehighTechnical
Technical is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 53 starts against a target of 110.
-57 projected start variance · 49 to 57 confidence range · medium forecast confidencehighPost Production
Post Production is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 49 starts against a target of 100.
-51 projected start variance · 46 to 52 confidence range · medium forecast confidencehighFilm Production
Film Production is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 54 starts against a target of 110.
-56 projected start variance · 50 to 58 confidence range · medium forecast confidencehighCraft
Craft is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 47 starts against a target of 80.
-33 projected start variance · 44 to 50 confidence range · medium forecast confidencehighProduction Management
Production Management is projected below target
Current trajectory projects 49 starts against a target of 100.
-51 projected start variance · 46 to 52 confidence range · medium forecast confidenceForecasts are transparent deterministic planning models.Scenario assumptions and confidence ranges remain visible. Forecasts inform recruitment operations and do not make applicant-level decisions.